Paul V. Profeta is the publisher of Real Estate NJ. — Photo by Aaron Houston for Real Estate NJ
Below is a link to an article by David Berson, Ph.D., of Cumberland Advisors regarding the country’s current economic status and an analysis of whether we will fall into a recession. In my opinion, it is exceptionally well written and accurate. More importantly, Berson does not fall into the usual trap that most commentators are susceptible to of only presenting data that substantiates their position. He covers the field and presents both sides of the argument without really sticking his flag in either mound.
On the non-recession side, he cites May’s non-farm payrolls or NFP number of 339,000 combined with large upward revisions for March and April. In addition, he sets forth the job openings versus unemployment ratio of 1.749 to 1, representing more than three times the median for that data point.
On the other side of the coin, he examines the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which has declined for the last 14 months and is currently at -7.9 percent, a metric that has historically always predicted a recession. Secondly, he scrutinizes the inversion of the yield curve which is the steepest it has been since 1981 and is also an almost certain predictor of a recession.
In the spirit of full disclosure, I should mention that Cumberland Advisors is one of the money managers I employ. I am not sure how that affects my opinion of Berson’s article, but thought I should disclose that fact. I am recommending this article based mainly on the fact that Berson surveys all the pertinent data that will influence the direction of the country’s economic trajectory, but leaves the conclusion up to you. I think it is a fascinating read that I wanted to share with you.
Quiz in the morning,
Sincerely,
Paul V. Profeta, Publisher
Real Estate NJ
https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/economic-and-financial-markets-review-june-2023
